By Zambian Emeralds Co - Open Publications Magazine, September 2025

From January 2020 through September 2025, Zambian emeralds harvested at the Kagem mine have posted a steady 30% cumulative price increase - roughly five percent per year on average. Compared to the 71% increase of the S&P500 and 45% increase of the global art‑auction price index, emeralds have come close to providing the smoothest ride of the four assets analyzed, with only one small (about four percent) decline in early 2021. Colorless diamonds, meanwhile, have been almost completely flat, down about three percent for the period as a whole and posting a fairly significant 2.7% decline in April 2025 as retail demand softened. For investors looking for stable profit with less volatility, the main message is that Zambian emeralds represent an attractive niche investment - particularly as a supplement to a broadly diversified portfolio which captures the wider market's upside through equities or art.

Emeralds increased by thirty percent during this five-year period, which is approximately five percent annualized, while the world art index gained forty-five percent (close to seven percent annualized) and the S&P500 total-return index increased seventy-one percent (around twelve percent annually). The worst single-year draw-down of the Emeralds was a small four-percent correction in early 2021. The S&P500 suffered a precipitous nineteen-percent decline in 2022, while art suffered a four-percent setback during the pandemic-related contraction of 2020. Colorless diamonds, meanwhile, posted a three-percent decline overall, with the most pronounced setback occurring in April 2025.

There are a few reasons why emeralds have held up. The Kagem deposit has an unusually high ore grade - around fifty grams of emerald per hundred tonnes of rock - which means far fewer tonnes need to be moved than at bulk‑metal mines in order to achieve the same per-carat weight. This superior quality results in reduced diesel usage and a lower carbon footprint per dollar of value added. Second, high net worth individuals in Asia, the Middle East and the US continue to see emeralds as a store of value and a status symbol. This leads to a relatively inelastic demand curve that is not as dependent on fashion cycles as that of diamonds. Third, output from the mine is constrained by geology and a back‑filling reclamation plan, ensuring tight supply and supporting price momentum even when the broader commodity sector falters. Emeralds also have low correlations (approximately fifteen percent) with major equity indices and a moderate negative correlation with diamond price trends, so a relatively small holding - five to ten percent of a portfolio - can enhance risk‑adjusted returns without subjecting investors to the extreme volatility of tech stocks or the cyclical risk of the art market.

Emeralds vs. their counterparts, stocks are the high-growth engine but with higher swing-risk (the 2022 bear market wiped out almost one-fifth of the S&P 500’s value in a single year), the art market offers solid but steady growth with cult following amongst ultra high-net-worth collectors but is illiquid and calendar-dependent, and Colorless diamonds are fading as consumer tastes shift to colored gemstones and lab-grown products, and more generally to fashion-dependent commodities. Emeralds are located in the Goldilocks point: they obtain reliable appreciation compared to other luxury goods. They less volatile than equities, and offer reasonable liquidity (while not instant, like stocks) that is higher than most fine-art sales, backed by robust secondary markets in Hong Kong, Dubai and London.

Which asset grew the most steadily and experienced the fewest price corrections? Most steady growth: Zambian Emeralds and Global Art both had smooth, steady increases with only mild, brief declines. Amongst the two, emeralds had the lowest absolute draw‑down (≈4% in 2021) and the flattest year‑to‑year variability, making them the most steadily appreciating asset in this period.
Least downside: Once again, Zambian Emeralds had the shallowest draw‑down, followed by the Art index, whose worst YoY drop was less than 5%.

Growth forecasted 2025-2030: Projections suggest emeralds from Zambia will continue to expand by four to six percent per annum through 2030, fueled by persistent scarcity (Kagem's back-filled pits limit new production, with a scarce amount of Zambian Emeralds for sale), rising disposable income in emerging markets - particularly China and India, where emeralds are gaining popularity for weddings and high-end jewelry, and the emergence of institutional interest (a few hedge funds have started to put small percentages into gem-funds, adding credibility and liquidity to the market). This makes it scarce to be able to buy Zambian Emeralds. Possible challenges to continued expansion include geopolitical factors impacting export routes via Zambia's rail infrastructure, as well as regulatory scrutiny on mining practices. On that note, the mine is ISO-14001 and ISO-45001 certified and operates a public grievance mechanism, indicative of a capacity to self-regulate and avert reputational risk which might also deter some investors.

For those looking for a luxury-asset class that combines low double-digit growth with low volatility, Zambian emeralds from the Kagem mine merit your attention. They have outperformed colorless diamonds, offered steadier returns than the art market and presented a smoother experience than the S&P500’s roller-coaster. A five‑to‑ten percent allocation as part of a well-diversified portfolio could boost your risk-adjusted returns while also giving you exposure to a beautiful and financially resilient gemstone. As always, any such allocation must be preceded by diligent due-diligence: verify the provenance, validate the mine's ESG disclosures and remain sensitive to macro-economic changes that could affect the demand for luxury goods.